Received:
2026-02-11 | Accepted:
2026-05-23 | Published:
2026-06-30
Title
Graduate unemployment in South Africa (2016-2025): trends, drivers and policy matrix
Abstract
This study examines the evolving nature of graduate unemployment in South Africa over the past decade, arguing that the challenge has shifted from short‑term, cyclical labour market mismatches to a deeply structural failure of economic absorption. Drawing on evidence of employment outcomes and policy experience from 40 publications, the analysis based on the Atlas_ti 26.0.0 model demonstrates that graduate unemployment is driven by the interaction of structural constraints—such as slow and uneven economic growth, deindustrialisation, limited expansion of high‑skill sectors, and persistent socio‑economic inequalities—alongside institutional weaknesses within higher education, labour market entry systems, and recruitment practices. These long‑standing conditions have been further intensified by cyclical shocks, notably the economic downturn preceding 2019 and the COVID‑19 pandemic, which disrupted school‑to‑work transitions and generated scarring effects for new labour market entrants. The findings reinforce the National Development Plan 2030’s core proposition that employment is the foundation of development, while highlighting a critical gap between human capital production and productive employment creation. Consequently, graduate unemployment should be treated as a systemic indicator of economic performance and inclusion rather than an education failure, and argues for policy approaches that prioritise demand‑side job creation, strengthened labour market transitions, and equity‑driven absorption strategies to align higher education outcomes with inclusive growth objectives.
Keywords
graduate unemployment, higher education, National Development Plan 2030, Socio-economic imperatives
JEL classifications
J64
, I23
, I26
URI
http://jssidoi.org/ird/article/255
DOI
Pages
136-149
Funding
The research leading to these results has received funding from the South African National Research Foundation (NRF): Grant Number PSTD250404308801.
This is an open access issue and all published articles are licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
References
Astuti, E. D., Estiana, R., Maulida, S., & Sintesa, N. (2026). The Economic Value of Higher Education in Economic Growth against Labor Absorption and Human Development Index. Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen Kesatuan, 14(2), 1731-1742 https://doi.org/10.37641/jimkes.v14i2.4995
Search via ReFindit
Baldry, K. (2015). Graduate unemployment in South Africa: Social inequality reproduced. Journal of Education and Work, 29(7), 788-812 https://doi.org/10.1080/13639080.2015.1066928
Search via ReFindit
Chankseliani, M., Qoraboyev, I., & Gimranova, D. (2021). Higher education contributing to local, national, and global development: new empirical and conceptual insights. Higher Education, 81(1), 109-127 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10734-020-00565-8
Search via ReFindit
Demissie, M. M., Herut, A. H., Yimer, B. M., Bareke, M. L., Agezew, B. H., Dedho, N. H., & Lebeta, M. F. (2021). Graduates’ unemployment and associated factors in Ethiopia: Analysis of higher education graduates’ perspectives. Education Research International, 1-9 https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/4638264
Search via ReFindit
Fauzi, M. A., Abdul Rahman, A. R., & Lee, C. K. (2023). A systematic bibliometric review of the United Nations’ SDGs: which are the most related to higher education institutions? International Journal of Sustainability in Higher Education, 24(3), 637-659 https://doi.org/10.1108/IJSHE-12-2021-0520
Search via ReFindit
Fika, M., Adeniran, A. A., & Botha, B. (2021, February). Unemployment of the built environment graduates. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 654(1), 012005). IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/654/1/012005
Search via ReFindit
Funding: The research leading to these results has received funding from the South African National Research Foundation (NRF): Grant Number PSTD250404308801.
Search via ReFindit
Gartoumi, K. I., & Tekouabou, S. C. K. (2024). Exploring African skills 4.0 required for 4IR industry: a systematic literature review. Data & Policy, 6(e36), 1-21 https://doi.org/10.1017/dap.2024.28
Search via ReFindit
Gwala, F. N., Mthethwa, R. M., & Jili, N. N. (2023). An analysis of the factors, effects and experiences associated with high graduate unemployment in the eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality of South Africa. African Journal of Public Affairs, 14(1), 122-151 https://hdl.handle.net/10520/ejc-ajpa_v14_n1_a8
Search via ReFindit
International Labour Organization. (2020). Global employment trends for youth 2020: Technology and the future of jobs. Geneva: ILO. Retrieved from: https://www.ilo.org/publications/major-publications/global-employment-trends-youth-2020-technology-and-future-jobs
Search via ReFindit
International Labour Organization. (2022). Global employment trends for youth 2022: Investing in transforming futures for young people. Geneva: ILO. Retrieved from: https://www.ilo.org/publications/major-publications/global-employment-trends-youth-2022-investing-transforming-futures-young
Search via ReFindit
International Labour Organization. (2026). Employment and social trends 2026. ILO. Retrieved from: https://researchrepository.ilo.org/view/delivery/41ILO_INST/13147301370002676?bypassKey=492dd5a5-3f7a-45de-9fa7-2d91f07c5f19
Search via ReFindit
Iwara, I. O. (2025). Graduate employability in Africa: Reimagining rural-based entrepreneurial university paradigm. Sustainability, 17(10), 1-16 https://doi.org/10.3390/su17104628
Search via ReFindit
Kale, M. G. (2024). What now? Experiences of everyday unemployment among Black graduates in South Africa (Doctoral dissertation, University of Oxford) https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:24369aef-10a1-4203-a665-b9da8fbe4035
Search via ReFindit
Mabiza, J., Mahlalela, P., & Mbohwa, C. (2017). Reducing unemployment rate in South Africa through establishment of graduate internship programmes (GIP). In Proceedings of the International MultiConference of Engineers and Computer Scientists, 2, 15-17 https://pure.uj.ac.za/en/publications/reducing-unemployment-rate-in-south-africa-through-establishment-/
Search via ReFindit
MacGinty, H. (2024). Graduate unemployment in South Africa (Master’s thesis, University of Stellenbosch) https://lmi-research.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Graduate-Unemployment-in-South-Africa_LMI-Bursary-Output_March2024.pdf
Search via ReFindit
Mhazo, T., & Thebe, V. (2021). ‘Hustling out of unemployment’: Livelihood responses of unemployed young graduates in the city of Bulawayo, Zimbabwe. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 56(3), 628-642 https://doi.org/10.1177/0021909620937035
Search via ReFindit
Mkansi, M., & Landman, N. (2021). The future of work in Africa in the era of 4IR–The South African perspective. Africa Journal of Management, 7(sup1), 17-30 https://doi.org/10.1080/23322373.2021.1930750
Search via ReFindit
Mncayi, P. (2016). An analysis of the perceptions of graduate unemployment among graduates from a South African University. International Journal of Social Sciences and Humanity Studies, 8(1), 67-83 http://www.sobiad.org/ejournals/journal_IJSS/2016-vol_1_2.htm
Search via ReFindit
Mseleku, Z. (2025). No connections, no employment: Social capital and youth graduate unemployment in South Africa. E-Journal of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, 6(8), 1533-1546 https://doi.org/10.38159/ehass.20256820
Search via ReFindit
Mukurunge, T., & Tlali, N. (2017). Curriculum reform at tertiary level as key to graduate employability and entrepreneurship in Lesotho. Journal of US-China Public Administration, 14(6), 339-347 https://doi.org/10.17265/1548-6591/2017.06.005
Search via ReFindit
Mutandiko, H. (2021). The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the job-seeking strategies of unemployed graduates in Johannesburg (Master’s thesis, University of Johannesburg) https://hdl.handle.net/10210/501694
Search via ReFindit
Mwita, K. M. (2018). Tanzania graduate employability: Perception of human resource management practitioners. International Journal of Human Resource Studies, 8(2), 263-272 https://doi.org/10.5296/ijhrs.v8i2.12921
Search via ReFindit
National Planning Commission (NDC). (2013). Your guide to the National Development Plan 2030. The Presidency, Republic of South Africa.
Search via ReFindit
Ngcobo, T. V., & Cele, N. (2025). Bridging the Gap: Investigating Graduate Unemployment Dynamics in KwaZulu‑Natal, South Africa. Frontiers in Social Thoughts and Humanity, 2(01), 7-10 https://irjernet.com/index.php/fsth
Search via ReFindit
Njeru, W. (2025). Massification and employability of university graduates in Kenya. ShahidiHub International Journal of Education, Humanities & Social Science, 3(1), 1-17 https://shahidihub.org/shahidihub/index.php/jehss/article/view/261
Search via ReFindit
Nkoana, I., & Raphiri, M. D. (2025). The Impact of Individuals Holding Multiple Jobs on Graduate Unemployment in South Africa. IAHRW International Journal of Social Sciences Review, 13(9) https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18184789
Search via ReFindit
OECD (2025), OECD Employment Outlook 2025: Can We Get Through the Demographic Crunch? OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/194a947b-en
Search via ReFindit
Okolie, U. C., Nwosu, H. E., & Mlanga, S. (2019). Graduate employability: How the higher education institutions can meet the demand of the labour market. Higher education, skills and work-based learning, 9(4), 620-636 https://doi.org/10.1108/HESWBL-09-2018-0089
Search via ReFindit
Pheko, M. M., & Molefhe, K. (2017). Addressing employability challenges: A framework for improving the employability of graduates in Botswana. International Journal of Adolescence and Youth, 22(4), 455-469 https://doi.org/10.1080/02673843.2017.1343436
Search via ReFindit
Ramatshekgisa, G M. (2020). An investigation on the experiences, causes and consequences of unemployment amongst Graduate Youths in Ga-Kgapane, Limpopo Province of South Africa (Master’s thesis, University of the Western Cape) https://hdl.handle.net/10566/13010
Search via ReFindit
Sangaré-Oumar, M. M., Qian, S., Qiu, Y., Bouraima, M. B., Badi, I., & Tengecha, N. A. (2025). Evaluation of factors influencing university graduates’ unemployment in developing country: A multi-criteria decision-making perspective. Spectrum of operational research, 2(1), 192-201 https://doi.org/10.31181/sor21202516
Search via ReFindit
Schofer, E., Ramirez, F. O., & Meyer, J. W. (2021). The societal consequences of higher education. Sociology of Education, 94(1), 1-19 https://doi.org/10.1177/00380407209429
Search via ReFindit
Shabangu, N., & Madondo, N. E. (2024, December). Addressing graduate unemployment: Aligning higher education curricula with labour market demands. In The focus conference (TFC 2024) (pp. 74-87). Atlantis Press https://doi.org/10.2991/978-94-6463-630-7_5
Search via ReFindit
Statistics South Africa. (2023). Quarterly Labour Force Survey: Quarter 4. Stats SA. Retrieved from: https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0211/P02114thQuarter2023.pdf
Search via ReFindit
Statistics South Africa. (2025). Quarterly Labour Force Survey: Quarter 4. Stats SA. Retrieved from: https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0211/P02114thQuarter2025.pdf
Search via ReFindit
Thetsane, R. M. (2023). Entrepreneurship education: Remedy to graduates’ unemployment in Sub-Saharan countries. In Ayoo, C. (Ed). Unemployment-Nature, Challenges and Policy Responses. IntechOpen https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.1001450
Search via ReFindit
Tinashe, H., & Chinyamurindi, W. T. (2019). Labour market transition and experiences of unemployed graduates: An exploratory study. African Journal of Employee Relations, 43(1), 1-31 https://hdl.handle.net/10520/EJC-1fa66a95a8
Search via ReFindit
Tshishonga, N. S. (2022). Addressing the unemployed graduate challenge through student entrepreneurship and innovation in South Africa's higher education. In Oham, C. (ed). Cases on survival and sustainability strategies of social entrepreneurs (pp. 161-181). IGI Global Scientific Publishing https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-7724-0.ch008
Search via ReFindit
RSS 1.0