Received: 2019-05-18  |  Accepted: 2019-09-10  |  Published: 2019-12-15

Title

Foresight for sustainable energy policy in Egypt: results from a Delphi survey


Abstract

This paper presents energy opportunities, particular areas of high potential and reflections on energy challenges in Egypt by the year 2040. Energy foresight significantly contributes in the effective review and formulation of national energy policies and strategies. In this work, 350 experts participated in real-time Delphi survey and responded to a set of structured and cross-linked questionnaires that aim to assess and provide future dimension to the energy sector in Egypt. Priorities are presented across 14 energy cluster-areas with 180 identified topics. The two-round Delphi study with an iterative process was performed to determine and measure the expectations of the different stakeholders with specific emphasis on the prospects of renewable energy and energy efficiency. The designed cross-linkages between survey components allowed the systematic pooling and convergence of knowledge in addition to the technical insights and different perspectives. About 50% of Egypt's energy demand was foresighted to be met by renewable energies around 2030. The results showed that all types of energy would not only provide economic and environmental benefits but also improve living standards. This work demonstrates that involving large diversity of expertise and different stakeholders, comprising heterogeneous groups, in foresight studies would potentiate the forecasting power, reduce the polarization effect, and enhance the reliability of the foresight exercise.


Keywords

science policy, foresight, Delphi survey, energy, sustainable development, renewable energy


JEL classifications

O21 , O32 , O38


URI

http://jssidoi.org/ird/article/25


DOI


HAL


Pages

357-369


Funding

This research was supported by the project, which has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme Marie Sklodowska-Curie Research and Innovation Staff Exchanges ES H2020-MSCA-RISE-2014 CLUSDEVMED (2015-2019) Grant Agreement Number 645730730

This is an open access issue and all published articles are licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

Authors

Rezk, Mohamed Ramadan A.
Academy of Scientific Research and Technology, Cairo, Egypt http://www.asrt.sci.eg
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Radwan, Amr
Academy of Scientific Research and Technology, Cairo, Egypt http://www.asrt.sci.eg
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Salem, Nahed
Academy of Scientific Research and Technology, Cairo, Egypt http://www.asrt.sci.eg
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Sakr, Mahmoud M.
Academy of Scientific Research and Technology, Cairo, Egypt http://www.asrt.sci.eg
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Tvaronavičienė, Manuela
Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, Vilnius, Lithuania https://vilniustech.lt
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Journal title

Insights into Regional Development

Volume

1


Number

4


Issue date

December 2019


Issue DOI


ISSN

ISSN 2345-0282 (online)


Publisher

VšĮ Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, Vilnius, Lithuania

Cited

Google Scholar

Article views & downloads

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