Received: 2020-04-02  |  Accepted: 2020-06-18  |  Published: 2020-09-30

Title

Demographic and migration processes of labor potential: a case study the agricultural sector of the Republic of Kazakhstan


Abstract

It is very important to study the demographic and migration processes in the country when forming the labor potential of rural areas. Using these indicators affecting the labor potential, we calculated the parameters of linear trend models, checking their adequacy of the constructed models, calculated the determination coefficients, and built confidential intervals for the forecasts. In order to present a quantitative model expressing the general tendency of the time series change over time, we used the analytical alignment of the time series. In this case, the actual levels were replaced by levels calculated on the basis of certain data. As a result, we got the result of a change in time of the studied indicators in a positive direction. Obtained results: outflow of external and internal migration is the reason for the decline of labor potential in the country, but in general does not affect the efficiency of labor potential of the village; indicators of the population in general, i.e., the population of cities and villages, internal and external migration with natural population growth are quite close to one, what means that their forecast changes are insignificant and do not undergo significant changes in the future. Finally, with a 95% probability, we can expect that in 2020 - 2021, the indicators under consideration will not take values less than the lower limits of confidence forecast intervals and not greater than their upper limits. Obtain results are very important for development of a strategy for the effective use of labor potential.


Keywords

demography, migration, labor potential, agriculture, urban population, rural population, birth rate, labor market


JEL classifications

E20 , J01 , J11 , F16 , O15


URI

http://jssidoi.org/jesi/article/645


DOI


Pages

656-671


Funding


This is an open access issue and all published articles are licensed under a
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

Authors

Nurzhanova, Gulmira
Financial Academy JSC, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan https://fin-academy.kz
Articles by this author in: CrossRef |  Google Scholar

Mussirov, Galym
Baishev University, Aktobe, Kazakhstan https://www.vuzbaishev.kz
Articles by this author in: CrossRef |  Google Scholar

Niyazbekova, Shakizada
Moscow Witte University, Tula, Russian Federation http://www.muiv.ru
Articles by this author in: CrossRef |  Google Scholar

Ilyas, Akilbek
Financial Academy JSC, Nur-Sultan, Kazakhstan https://fin-academy.kz
Articles by this author in: CrossRef |  Google Scholar

Tyurina, Yuliya Gabdrashitovna
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation http://www.fa.ru
Articles by this author in: CrossRef |  Google Scholar

Maisigova, Leila A.
Ingush State University, Magas, Russian Federation http://www.inggu.ru
Articles by this author in: CrossRef |  Google Scholar

Troyanskaya, Marija
Orenburg State University, Orenburg, Russian Federation http://www.osu.ru
Articles by this author in: CrossRef |  Google Scholar

Kunanbayeva, Kymbat
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation http://www.fa.ru
Articles by this author in: CrossRef |  Google Scholar

Journal title

Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues

Volume

8


Number

1


Issue date

September 2020


Issue DOI


ISSN

ISSN 2345-0282 (online)


Publisher

VšĮ Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, Vilnius, Lithuania

Cited

Google Scholar

Article views & downloads

HTML views: 489  |  PDF downloads: 271

References