Export and GDP Growth in Lithuania: Short-run or Middle-run Causality?
The research paper discusses the relationship between international trade, especially export, and the economic growth, presented by GDP, in Lithuania over the period of 2000-2015 years. The analysis is started by the historical review of possible types of relationships between exports and economic growth. Furthermore, the paper presents four theoretical propositions as export-led growth (1), growth-driven export (2), a feedback relationship (3) and simple contemporaneous relationship (4). This study examines the importance of the export-led growth hypothesis for Lithuania. The testing is based on Granger causality in the export–GDP system. The export-led growth hypothesis is found in Lithuania only in the short-run. The recommendations for future investigations are developed at the end of research paper’s parts.
Granger causality, exogeneity, Lithuanian export, economic growth
F43 , P45 , O47
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